Ukraine Conflict

Post by **Philip** » Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:28 am

Are you following what's happening in Ukraine, what are your thoughts, what's coming next? Putin seems determined that he doesn't want NATO stationed near Russia's borders, and his narrative is that Ukraine is full of Russian people, that NATO has been expanding in Eastern Europe contrary to prior agreements in the 1990s, etc. Seems China issued a statement against Western sanctions on Russia now.

My random thoughts, whatever they're worth:

1. The NATO expansion claim is kind of complicated, seems there were some very public speeches by western diplomats that assured no expansion in Eastern Europe, but it did expand from 18 to 30 members, and it did get kind of close to Russia. The flip side of that is there seem to be no formal agreement stating that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe, or right on Russia's border.

2. Putin is obviously a bully, and he is irritated by the diminished power and relevancy of Russia. He wants to expand back west somewhat, reclaiming former USSR territories with mixed russian-speaking population. He likes the fact he has some economic impact on Europe (the natural gas pipes, etc.). In his eyes, he's protecting his nation's interests, like the US would (he is doing something similar to what the US was prepared to do during the Cuban missile crisis), and he's trying to prove that Russia is a very relevant power in the World geopolitical stage.

3. The US and Russia would not enter any direct military confrontation in my opinion, as this would likely mean the start of WW III. However, diplomacy has failed, we are at the economic sanctions stage. This is not some small country that can't handle western economic sanctions though, they can easily align with China, Pakistan, etc.

Ultimately, the people of Ukraine are suffering, and that's a real issue.

What do you think, how do you see this conflict playing out?

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:47 am

I really don't understand how such a small expansion of the Soviet empire is going to change their standing either at home or abroad. I just don't see the use in it. This is definitely a power-play by Putin with no understandable advantage. I too feel sorry for the people and I hope someone "blinks" and any casualties are kept to a minimum. It's a shame that people are going to die because of Putin's ego.

Leatherneck · Post by **Leatherneck** » Wed Feb 23, 2022 1:45 pm

This is one fertile, producing land. I would think that Putin may desire some of their resources

Ukraine: Mining, Minerals and Fuel Resources
The country has abundant reserves of natural resources, including coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury. The estimated GDP of Ukraine in 2018 was estimated to reach $131 billion, which is $19 billion more than it was in 2017. Overview of Resources

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:28 pm

Leatherneck wrote:This is one fertile, producing land. I would think that Putin may desire some of their resources

Ukraine: Mining, Minerals and Fuel Resources
The country has abundant reserves of natural resources, including coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury. The estimated GDP of Ukraine in 2018 was estimated to reach $131 billion, which is $19 billion more than it was in 2017. Overview of Resources

That's my take on it too.

Chock-full of exploitable resources, massive Black Sea territory and ports, buffer against western NATO expansion.

Winging it here, but also payback for Ukraine's declaring state sovereignty in 1991, following Estonia in 1988 and Lithuania in 1990.
I assume at that point the Soviet Union collapsed and Russians are still pissed. Politics are not my strong point though.

Post by **Philip** » Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:37 pm

I think the western economies embargo, including Russian banks and especially the Nord2 gas pipeline offsets any natural resources financial gain he'd get by expanding into Ukraine. I totally agree with the rest about territorial tactical gains and nationalistic political gains.

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:15 pm

Philip wrote:I think the western economies embargo, including Russian banks and especially the Nord2 gas pipeline offsets any natural resources financial gain he'd get by expanding into Ukraine. I totally agree with the rest about territorial tactical gains and nationalistic political gains.

Agreed, but I don't think it's about money.
Money's huge but not in the scheme of things (guessing).

Gains of territory and resources, deepwater ports and expanded control of the Black Sea, reclamation of former Soviet lands, buffering NATO and possibly setting the stage for disrupting/preventing potential future NATO acceptance of other countries.

My thoughts.

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:52 pm

Easto wrote:I really don't understand how such a small expansion of the Soviet empire is going to change their standing either at home or abroad. I just don't see the use in it. This is definitely a power-play by Putin with no understandable advantage. I too feel sorry for the people and I hope someone "blinks" and any casualties are kept to a minimum. It's a shame that people are going to die because of Putin's ego.

Fully agree on on the folks caught in the middle. I can't imagine.

But no, Ukraine would not be a small expansion, it'd be huge.

"During the 1946–1950 five-year plan, nearly 20% of the Soviet budget was invested in Soviet Ukraine"

Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine
Not the best reference but not the worst.

I think it goes back at least that far.
The Soviets invested heavily, Ukraine's output went up in industrial manufacturing, weapons, agriculture.

41 years later they leave and the Soviet Union falls.
Russians are still pissed and want their breadbasket back.

Post by **Philip** » Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:39 am

It's official, Russia launched full-scale attack invading Ukraine :/

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:01 am

Yeah, I called that wrong. I was telling everyone I know that I was pretty sure Putin was going to back-off at the last minute and say "See, I told you it was just an exercise".

Whether he gains access to the natural resources or not doesn't make this move a wise one in my mind. It just further reinforces the world's view that he is a bully.

Post by **YeOldeStonecat** » Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:41 am

Several months ago a lot of people were betting on "Mid to late Feb" for Putin to make his move....they were right on!

Putin was waiting for his prime adversary to become weak...which we did not too long ago. The timing lines up.

Some countries in Europe heavily rely on Russia for energy resources and other materials...so they can't step in against Putin.

Some major shifting of resources and power has happened now.
*Afghanistan....to China
*Ukraine...back to Russia

HUGE shifts of resources and power....going to our 2x enemies. The tight rope that the US has been walking with Russia, and China, is starting to fray and collapse.....we're not in fun times.
And speaking of China...while the worlds eyes is focused (and distracted) on the Ukraine...watch how China is working towards Taiwan

Last week Putin said (as part of his justification of the invasion)..."the Ukraine belongs to Ancient Russia". ...I'll add..."so did Alaska". Hoping Putin and Trudeau aren't talking behind the scenes.....

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:52 am

YeOldeStonecat wrote:Last week Putin said (as part of his justification of the invasion)..."the Ukraine belongs to Ancient Russia".

Some of what I'm hearing coming out of his mouth as justification for this invasion is insane. It was also extremely embarrassing hearing 45 praising Putin's prowess and the way he masterminded this invasion.

BMED · Post by **BMED** » Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:56 pm

I'm more concerned about the illegal invasion of our southern boarder in the US and why it has been ignored by our administration for the past year and a half...$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:45 am

BMED wrote:I'm more concerned about the illegal invasion of our southern boarder in the US and why it has been ignored by our administration for the past year and a half...$$

Really? With everything that's going on in the world today that's at the top of your list? Although there's no doubt that illegal immigration does stress our system and economy I've been hearing and reading the same thing for the last 50 years, not just the "past year and a half". This is a cultural issue and has always been that way, it has very little to do with any administration past or present.

BMED · Post by **BMED** » Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:47 pm

Easto wrote:Really? With everything that's going on in the world today that's at the top of your list? Although there's no doubt that illegal immigration does stress our system and economy I've been hearing and reading the same thing for the last 50 years, not just the "past year and a half". This is a cultural issue and has always been that way, it has very little to do with any administration past or present.

I never said it was at the top my list, read it again but slowly! I can dumb it down slowly for you if would help.

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:50 pm

BMED wrote:I never said it was that it was at the top my list, read it again but slowly! I can dumb it down slowly for you if you prefer...

I don't think you can dumb it down any further.

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:19 am

BMED wrote:I never said it was at the top my list, read it again but slowly! I can dumb it down slowly for you if would help.

I guess in the literal sense you are correct. You did not say it was at "the top of your list".

But, if you're unable to see that you took a relatively unilateral thread regarding Ukraine and injected a somewhat amplified opinion (by the use of multiple $$) of Illegal immigration and that the problem is being "ignored" by the current administration, I think it would be reasonable to imply that if this is not at least at the top of your list, it's something that hovers in that neighborhood.

BMED · Post by **BMED** » Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:56 pm

Easto wrote:I guess in the literal sense you are correct. You did not say it was at "the top of your list".

But, if you're unable to see that you took a relatively unilateral thread regarding Ukraine and injected a somewhat amplified opinion (by the use of multiple $$) of Illegal immigration and that the problem is being "ignored" by the current administration, I think it would be reasonable to imply that if this is not at least at the top of your list, it's something that hovers in that neighborhood.

"Something that hovers in that neighborhood"...you really don't have a clue of what is going on around you in this world, do you?

Post by **Philip** » Thu Mar 10, 2022 12:25 pm

BMED wrote:"Something that hovers in that neighborhood"...you really don't have a clue of what is going on around you in this world, do you?

This seems uncalled for, I don't see the need for personal attacks.

Rivas · Post by **Rivas** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:57 pm

Hello everyone,

it's not about money, this conflict will end up bad for Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. I'm uploading documentary video so you can understand Russian/Soviet thinking. It starts long before WW2, how Russia was controlling population in Ukraine, how Germany and Russia attacked Poland during WW2 and Finland as well. I hope youtube is not going to take down the video.
https://youtu.be/SCJz4COHnLc

Post by **Philip** » Wed Mar 23, 2022 6:58 pm

Hi Rivas, good to see you!
Great video thank you for sharing. It explains a lot of the horrors, brutality and genocide that actually happened in the 20th century.

Without condoning the invasion in any way, this is another informative video pointing out the role NATO played in the conflict after the iron curtain was lifted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

Rivas · Post by **Rivas** » Thu Mar 24, 2022 10:56 am

Good to see you too, been a long time Philip

Great video as well !
That almost exactly explains the Russian affairs and Slavic thinking. I would use different words in private chat but as I grow older I realized I don't want to start another flame war/disturbances or use of innapropriate language.
Let's just hope they will make some agreement and stop the war.
Did you realize the coverage ? As soon as they started killing white people with blue eyes the coverage is different compared to different wars (non caucasian people). Feel free to edit this post but we both know it's the truth.

Also what is happening with the refugees is a disaster, especially in Poland, Slovakia, UK, Czech republic, they are sending them from one place to another. You might ask why and the question is simple ....they don't want them there.

BMED · Post by **BMED** » Fri Mar 25, 2022 11:13 pm

Philip wrote:This seems uncalled for, I don't see the need for personal attacks.

Then eliminate me, remove me from SG and erase/delete all my post...all of them! Sorry I feel indifferent than you... PISS*FF

Post by **Philip** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 8:14 am

Everyone feels differently than me, that's never been the issue BMED. I am not encroaching on your views or feelings in any way.

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:07 am

BMED wrote:Then eliminate me, remove me from SG and erase/delete all my post...all of them!

I don't want to see you go. So what if we have different views on the topics of the day. Honestly, you can say and feel what you want about me. If you think I'm blindly tripping through life oblivious to the issues you feel strongest about... that's fine too. We just see things differently.

Leatherneck · Post by **Leatherneck** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:15 pm

How 'bout them Bears.. Oh wait, they suck

Rivas · Post by **Rivas** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 4:33 pm

Different people different opinions.

Anyway, just watching this war but not as tense as before and wondering, does anyone have cure for human nature ?

koldchillah · Post by **koldchillah** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:14 am

Check out "the Enforcer" on YouTube. He goes live every night around 10pm ET and goes through all the daily videos which usually takes about 2hrs. This guy started tracking combat videos posted throughout social media of front line footage and has created a front line map and has made all sorts of analysis based on information he collects and he updates daily. I've been following his channel since about the 5th or 6th day and he's made predictions and explained things that he guessed would happen next and he's pretty much nailed it every time so far. Pro-Russian hackers have taken down his Discord server twice and they even infiltrated his circle of mods and have tried to cause ruckus in the live chat, but he keeps at it. When Russia released their version of the front lines on a map, it looked eerily close to his, almost as if they copied it. lol

What's interesting is that Russia started this invasion with only 4000 logistical vehicles in total, several hundred which have already been destroyed or simply captured by Ukrainian forces. Even with all 4000 logistical vehicles in Ukraine, that is only enough to support about 60% of their total ground forces. Russians have began using civilian vehicles to transport supplies as they are running out of actual military supply trucks so who knows how many of those 4000 vehicles are actually left operational, probably not enough to even support 50% of their ground forces at this point. That explains why their advances have come to a halt and they have had to dig in and defend the ground they've taken, and they are actually losing ground in several areas.

Aside from proving to be under-supplied they also appear under-trained and lack motivation and command structure. Their vehicles are also maintained poorly and the Chinese tires that they used on them are failing and shredding and going flat at an absurd rate. Basically this war is exposing Russia as a much weaker military force than everyone has given them credit for. The nukes are about all they got as far as being a threat to any NATO nation. They don't have air superiority and it appears they never will. They don't have adequate logistical supplies or supply lines and the supply lines they do have are under constant harassment by Ukrainian forces and civilian defense forces. Nearly every day, there are farmers in Ukraine literally stealing abandoned Russian tanks and armored vehicles by simply towing them away with their tractors because they are out of gas and abandoned. LOL

The Russians are taking such heavy losses, both personnel-wise and vehicle-wise on a daily basis, that they won't have the capacity to keep 3 fronts open more than another couple of months at best. They will have to consolidate forces if they want to take any more cities or cover any more ground. They began withdrawing troops north of Kyiv back into Belarus, most likely because they don't have the logistics to support them and they will re-assign them to fill in gaps for other units that have been wiped out in other areas of the front. Ukraine is being smart in concentrating their attack efforts on the logistics and its working. Destroy the fuel trucks and the tanks & machines of war end up abandoned and captured. The Ukrainians have also captured so many Russian tanks, they have enough to put together their own tank battalions now and have used them against the Russians. LOL

Post by **Philip** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:44 am

People in Ukraine are fighting for their freedom and this naturally makes them much more motivated than Russian soldiers. Still, Russia has a bigger army, and more weapons at their disposal. I don't think they have deployed all their military resources, even though their army is not big enough to occupy Ukraine with this much resistance.

I imagine there will be more talks and some type of agreement for Ukraine remaining neutral, outside of NATO and the EU, which would be ok for global peace, not so much for the Ukrainian people and East-West relations. Nearly 4 million have fled the country now, and many will likely remain abroad. I am not sure what will happen to the Donbas region.

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:02 am

I haven't been paying close attention as to the exodus of Ukrainians from their country but my guess is that a large portion of those 4 million don't have any plans to go back. Even if things were to clear up in an acceptable level I would still be wondering when the next invasion was coming? Certainly raising a family in Ukraine isn't something a father would make as his first choice. What's in store for the next 5, 10 or 15 years?

Rivas · Post by **Rivas** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:12 pm

Russia will annex territories with Russian speaking majorities.
Sadly Ukraine will become most likely 2nd Maldives with not even 120 square miles.

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:51 pm

Philip wrote:I am not sure what will happen to the Donbas region.

Good post.

Wondering about that too.