Stock Market

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:39 pm

Do you think we're in for some growth with the new Administration? I know 2 days doesn't a fiscal year make. But, I think with industries not having to worry which way the wind is going to blow may have them thinking a bit more long term. I'm expecting a nice little bump over the next couple of weeks, another once Biden is inaugurated and them some slow steady growth. My portfolio is poised for some growth. Please be good to me, lol.

Post by **Philip** » Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:43 am

Growth is where to be in the long term for sure imho, however, I still expect bumps in the road near term.
The virus is still here and causing deaths every day, a lot of European countries and some US cities have reimplemented curfews and restrictions like closing bars/restaurants/malls/etc. It is far from over yet, and many businesses globally are hurting recording losses. The stimulus package and the Fed kept the US economy afloat by pouring a lot of money into it, but the market seems a bit overconfident to me, especially with the last couple of days rally. Most people that were in the market made money in the past 5 months, but will be ready to lock in their profits the moment it turns.. I would be very cautious in the next 3-4 months - a few negative headlines can spook the market easily when it is overweight. At the end it all depends on what the big fish do, the top 10% own over 85% of the stock market these days.

Just my personal subjective 2c, past performance/predictions are not indicative of future returns yadayada and all that jazz

knightmare · Post by **knightmare** » Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:45 pm

What new administration are you talking about?

MadDoctor · Post by **MadDoctor** » Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:24 pm

Something other than Trump.

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:15 am

Mostly I'm just counting on things stabilizing once we don't have someone in office that wants to spook the world's economy on a whim. I'll accept the normal ups and downs of the market, I just don't see all this shock therapy doing any good whatsoever.

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:08 pm

MadDoctor wrote:Something other than Trump.

KarlieBoe2 · Post by **KarlieBoe2** » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:02 pm

Well in the short term, quantitative easing has had a much larger effect on the price of capital goods than fiscal policy. In the long term I don't expect anything radically different in terms of fundamental growth rates. The president is steering a GIANT ship with a tiny rudder, his influence is overrated regardless of his party. This assumes you are buying an ETF or something that reflects the economy as a whole. Individual industries such as energy can be radically changed by governance.

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:29 pm

I'm looking at things that have sunk given the current circumstances but are bound to come back...eventually.

Airlines, cruises, hotels.

Carnival Cruise? No one is cruising right now but in a couple of years?

Basically half what it was.

Just don't be in a hurry and don't wager anything you can't afford to lose.

Post by **Philip** » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:47 am

Good points KarlieBoe2, welcome to SG

Humby, I bought some CCL when it was 15, sold it to lock in some profit. Sold some options too. They are a huge company with a lot of cash reserves (7+billion) so they can wait it out, even though they are burning 500m+ per month. Short term I think cruises and airlines may sink a bit because of the new coronavirus strain in the UK.

Ken · Post by **Ken** » Tue Dec 22, 2020 9:30 am

Philip wrote: ...I think cruises and airlines may sink a bit ...

Was the pun intended? LOL

From merely a financial perspective, Trump is going to be hard to beat. It is a shame that covid came out of nowhere and no one knew what to expect,...at least from a private citizen perspective...

Unfortunately I believe that our world is forever going to change as a result.

Private China keeps the dollar propped up, if they fail, we fail and vice-versa... (Not the communist government)

The dollar's up, down, you better buy the pound[/ AC/DC]
Edited to add...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lqdErI9uss

Post by **Philip** » Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:12 am

Ken wrote:Was the pun intended? LOL

Only partially, for one of the industries

Post by **Philip** » Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:30 pm

Today, so far:
CCL -5.3%
AAL -3.6%

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Tue Dec 22, 2020 7:18 pm

If I was younger and a bit more of a gambling man I would seriously consider a Cruise Line stock. The problem is there is too much time between now and when Covid recedes enough for them to start making money. And that's a lot of time to consider bankruptcy.

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:25 pm

I usually don't like to revive old threads but I thought this might be in order.

CCL has done really good since Philip's last post. Also, with the latest news regarding applications for unemployment and covid receding I think we're in for some good times. Everyone seems to agree that there's no where else but up (feel free to revive this thread 6 months from now when we're in a recession).

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:47 pm

Easto wrote:I usually don't like to revive old threads but I thought this might be in order.

CCL has done really good since Philip's last post. Also, with the latest news regarding applications for unemployment and covid receding I think we're in for some good times. Everyone seems to agree that there's no where else but up (feel free to revive this thread 6 months from now when we're in a recession).

Was about to respond to your previous comment...Fingers crossed, but I agree with Philip, they've got enough reserve to wait it out, despite the unknowns.

Wish I'd had enough to buy more at $18.50 about 6 months ago.

Post by **YeOldeStonecat** » Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:06 pm

I'm looking forward to stocks climbing again. Esp tech stocks...I've been playing in those for the past couple of years.

Picked up Ubiquiti stock about 2 years ago...it was around 140 per. Ubiquiti makes network hardware, more noted for wireless...including outdoor and long range point to point. I sell/install it by the truckload....so I contribute what I can. It had done great up until this past Feb...when news leaked about a major breach they had via one of their employees. It was a really bad breach. Their stock has juuuuust hit 400 bucks a pop! It's down in the 280's now...so I've pretty much doubled that stock..hope it gets back up mid 300's again soon. Doubt it will bump 400 again.

AMD...their stock has been doing well..especially since the Ryzen processor came out, I've picked up lumps of it starting about 2 years ago when it was around 40 bucks...it's been up in the high 90's...settling down around the high 80's with this early year dip. I just put an order in to snag a bunch more during this lull, as they juuuuust announced (sorta leaked I think) news up of their upcoming 5nm chip..the Zen 4 Raphael. Due out end of next year, so...stock may slowly rise soon and bake that in...or..may take a while to rise. But I'm in AMD for the long haul..making them the largest single stock in my 401 outside of the regular funds. Some I know bought 40k worth back when it was about 11 bucks a share....about 4 years ago. Run those numbers in a compound interest calculator. In his words..."It was a retirement altering decision!"

So I've seen around 100% climb with those 2.

Google is a steady riser.

QQQ is a good "tech stock ETF".

Think it's about time to purchase some airline stock. We're South West fliers ourselves...it's what we use to go to FL the couple of trips we make each year. Flights were nice and empty this past year, and CHEAP! There's an airline ETF called JETS which I'll get some of. It's already been climbing since mid Feb. Won't put a lot in it...sorta already missed that boat, time to buy was last summer when it was chump change. But it still has some room to get back to where it was.

Anyways, yeah..enjoyed the booming economy for the past 3+ years...was bummed to see it flatten out this past winter. Hopefully the "got a grip on COVID" thing will start bringing it back....although I don't expect to see it at such high returns as say...the past 2-1 years.

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:33 pm

YeOldeStonecat wrote:I'm looking forward to stocks climbing again. Esp tech stocks...I've been playing in those for the past couple of years.

I think you're very wise and a lot of investors should take your approach... invest in an industry that you know and understand. Also particularly helpful when you're in the same industry.

Post by **Philip** » Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:53 pm

I like AMD after Ryzen. They should also get a bump from the video card market with the crypto craze. I like INTC for good fundamentals and AI. IBM is great for AI/Cloud computing, business services, etc. QCOM will benefit from 5G. MU is good. Some semiconductor stocks will do well too imho.
I don't like UI at these prices, it was less than 200 a year ago.. Maybe if it goes under 250 I will bite. It trades at higher PE ratio than CSCO, JNPR and some others in the sector.

As far as travel, yeah, airlines should bounce back some more. Southwest (LUV) has pretty solid fundamentals and a lot more cash compared to others like AAL, DAL, UAL, SKYW, however, its stock is already higher than before the pandemic so I am kind of on the fence on it.

US Cannabis stocks will also do well if congress legalizes MJ, but that's very speculative play.

I am afraid that with all those money printed in the past year, we may be headed towards inflation territory soon, and the Fed may be forced to increase interest rates before the projected 2023. Market seems kind of hot, should correct at some point and have more volatility. There are all kinds of retail investors that think they are experts now, since it is easy to make money when the market is going up, college kids and meme stocks in the news like GME and AMC heh. Crypto I can understand, but WallStreetBets/meme-stocks and those short squeezes are a bit too crazy.

Just my personal 2c, adjusted for inflation

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:42 am

Philip wrote: US Cannabis stocks will also do well if congress legalizes MJ, but that's very speculative play.

I've always been interested on how the whole Cannabis market will move, but I'm not sure it will really explode. I think initially everyone thought that all these pot smokers were going to come out of the woodwork and the industry would go crazy. About a year ago we had a dispensary open near/in our neighborhood. There was all sorts of speculation as to whether it was going to attract crime and all the usual concerns you see posted in neighborhood forums. It actually turned out to be just like any other store. It's a converted corner gas stations so there's no adjacent businesses and people just drive and park, come and go. It's very well run. There aren't people hanging around the neighborhood and stuff like that. Unless you knew it was a dispensary you'd probably not even know what it was. No big Green crosses etc. Just a local business. It's not overrun with customers which makes me think that this sort of business might grow, but there's no way it would explode.

Post by **YeOldeStonecat** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:30 pm

Philip wrote:
US Cannabis stocks will also do well if congress legalizes MJ, but that's very speculative play.

I am afraid that with all those money printed in the past year, we may be headed towards inflation territory soon, and the Fed may be forced to increase interest rates before the projected 2023. Market seems kind of hot, should correct at some point and have more volatility.

RE: Pot stocks...I haven't been able to figure those out. I'm sure it requires some inside knowledge that I can't get a glimpse of. I've tried picking up a few piles of it, but I've mostly lost money all that I've dove in on. Nothing big...just dabble with a few pocket fulls of money. But since many are OTCs if you lose...you lose, fold and sell what's left..you get that double whammy of fees just to sting you more on the way out. I'm still holding some ETF pot stock....MSOS..intend on holding onto that for a while.

Also agree that we'll see a good "adjustment" soon. Inflation...yes, to a degree. Can't print all this free money and not have inflation. And I'm sure the gov't will bump interest rates. I don't think the low interest rates are as dangerous as they were back in the '06 crash. Banks were reckless in loaning back then. Banks are quite strict now....even with low rates, they're still careful in giving out loans.

...however...related to banks...this "mortgage/rent forgiveness" thing is starting to have consequences. While many people are legitimately leaning on this, naturally a LOT of people are also abusing it. The banks are bleeding with so many people claiming they cannot pay their mortgage. And landlords are bleeding..with so many tenants claiming they cannot pay their rent.

Re: short squeezes...yeah there's a forum I'm in where there's a real old/long thread from some day traders. It's amazing to watch a small hand full of them work the market.....ramping runs, and pump 'm dumps. Usually all just in the early and mid hours of the morning...you'll see them coordinate on the forum...go on buying runs...sit for a little rise...and then coordinate again when to dump. And they do it in large volume. Usually penny stocks...and other OTCs.

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:04 pm

I think once pot is decriminalized on the Federal level that's when there might be some quantifiable advantage to owning them. Once they can use the federal banking system there will be more of a window into their true worth.

Post by **Philip** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:10 pm

4/20 is tomorrow... And coincidentally, the Congress is about to vote on the "SAFE Banking Act" to enable banks to serve MJ businesses.

koldchillah · Post by **koldchillah** » Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:14 am

Back when the 2017 Q4 crypto-craze happened I considered getting into crypto mining, (after I finished crying for having a server room in my house back when BTC was born but instead thought folding@home was cooler and more productive) but then crypto tanked and so I thought, why not invest in companies that make hardware for mining equipment and so instead of investing in crypto, I invested in tech stocks such as TSI (Tiawan Semiconductor), Intel, AMD, Lattice Semiconductor, etc.. I scored a 265% return on TSI alone. I began dual investing.. buying stocks and crypto currency almost equally. My crypto portfolio is blowing my stock portfolio away due to this ridiculous bull run, but both portfolios doing pretty solid so far. I can't complain.

Post by **Philip** » Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:07 pm

I sold the little BTC I had when BTC price was around 25k, in retrospect I should've kept it a bit longer but oh well :/ I have some ETH, and an ETH mining rig with six GTX-1070s that makes a few bucks per day mining.

Stock market has been good to most people in the past 12 months, future is a bit more uncertain to me.
Just sold some CCL PUT options expiring 4/23 and 4/30th in the dip today.

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:28 am

YeOldeStonecat wrote:

Think it's about time to purchase some airline stock.

Months back my father was still pissed about United not refunding his tickets from March 2020 for him and my sister to visit me (round-trip NC to CA, not cheap) that they cancelled when cases hit the fan.

CA cases were popping up on the radar, then doubling.

He had a doctor's recommendation for cancelling, sister was an authorized caregiver.

No refund.

He waited, saw them drop, bought big and sold perfect.

Bought at 32 and sold at 62.

Made the plane tickets back many times over.

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:33 am

Missed the Costco drop, 311 March 8, back to 374 today.

Damn it.

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:22 pm

At this point in time I honestly have a lot of faith that once the virus is controlled we'll experience a surge in growth like no other. It may only last 2-3 years, but I think the elation about being able to get a job and return to "normal" will put everyone in a hyper positive mood about almost everything. I see my growth funds booming over the next few years. I also think investing in any blue chip company will reap a generous profit over the same period of time.

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:53 am

The market reacts to Biden's plan to raise the Capital Gains tax on millionaires. I sort of get a kick out of seeing the market take at least a 1 day dip. I mean, if you're worth millions you're definitely going to be in the market and your exposure to a capital gains tax is virtually unavoidable. Life will go on.

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Mon May 03, 2021 2:16 am

How're you guys doing? CCL is finally taking an upward turn.

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Mon May 03, 2021 10:34 am

Humboldt wrote:How're you guys doing? CCL is finally taking an upward turn.

I'm not invested in CCL, but as to my overall portfolio I'm having a pretty good year. My big gainers are a couple of Growth Funds along with a S&P 500 ETF to keep me on a level playing field.

Post by **YeOldeStonecat** » Mon May 03, 2021 12:48 pm

Humboldt wrote:How're you guys doing? CCL is finally taking an upward turn.

Had some nearly penny stock in a renewable energy company (PVDG), it had plummeted. Went through a recompany re-org...emerged as VirExit (VXIT) and stocks soared that morning. I sold at double what I paid that morning...before it started settling again and the day traders were fast dumping. One of my few luckies in a while.

Bummed that the 2x direct pot stocks I had before and dumped....are now doing good. Yet the pot ETF MSOS isn't doing as well...of course I still have a pocket full of that.

Happy that Ubiquiti (UI) is still steadily climbing after the recent data breach and plummet of its stock.

AMD is still bouncing around a little...hoping it will climb more and I know it will, I bought another bunch about 2 weeks ago....I'll keeping buying a bit more every quarter until it starts a steep climb again.

Although I have a large % of my 401 in Fidelities 500 Index and that's done very well lately, I'm thinking of taking a third of that and sliding into Fidelities OTC Portfolio...I just have a feeling this will be a good year for their managed OCT fund with so much restructuring about to happen.

Humboldt · Post by **Humboldt** » Mon May 03, 2021 8:53 pm

YeOldeStonecat wrote: Although I have a large % of my 401 in Fidelities 500 Index and that's done very well lately, I'm thinking of taking a third of that and sliding into Fidelities OTC Portfolio...I just have a feeling this will be a good year for their managed OCT fund with so much restructuring about to happen.

In English please?

Post by **YeOldeStonecat** » Tue May 04, 2021 10:47 am

Humboldt wrote:In English please?

S&P 500 is a standard large "fund"...and many different brands of financial management companies have their own versions of that. We go through Fidelity at my office, so I have Fidelities 500 Index fund as a good 60% of my portfolio.
Fidelity has a lot of other "funds"...one of which is an OTC fund (I see my typo above...it's OTC, not OCT). OTC is Over The Counter. Normally this is for, entry level stocks, those companies which have stocks...but have not natured enough to get on the mighty Nasdag list or New York Stock Exchange list. Usually OTC stocks are much more "volatile"...and a lot of day traders play here.

There "can be" a lot of money to be made in OTC, if you're really into the game, which day traders are. There's also lots of risk, money to be lost. But the gains can be substantial. They invest in smaller to middle size companies that have good signs of growth, and also invest in high tech. To compare ..for the past 10 years, Fidelity 500 Index averaged about 12% returns, and the Fidelity OTC fund (FOCPX) has returned about 17%.

I have a feeling, based on Bidens recent speech, that his also following the goal of "bringing jobs back to America", and "bringing research back to America", and "high tech back to America"...that we will see renewed enthusiasm moving things along and I just have a hunch new, and small...growing companies...will be doing really well in upcoming years.

MadDoctor · Post by **MadDoctor** » Tue May 04, 2021 11:18 am

YeOldeStonecat wrote:S&P 500 is a standard large "fund"...and many different brands of financial management companies have their own versions of that. We go through Fidelity at my office, so I have Fidelities 500 Index fund as a good 60% of my portfolio.

Smart man.

Post by **Philip** » Tue May 04, 2021 5:31 pm

YeOldeStonecat wrote:...I just have a hunch new, and small...growing companies...will be doing really well in upcoming years.

While this is great and I agree with it, I've never made money trying to pick something in OTC. Or, rather, I'd make money on one and promptly lose more than that on another, so I try to stay away from them. Investing into an OTC ETF may be a smarter play though, as you are averaging risk.

I loaded on some tech today in the dip.

Post by **YeOldeStonecat** » Wed May 05, 2021 8:12 am

Philip wrote:While this is great and I agree with it, I've never made money trying to pick something in OTC. Or, rather, I'd make money on one and promptly lose more than that on another, so I try to stay away from them.

Totally agree with you. I've lost more on individual ETCs than I've made. It's fun, exciting, but...like a full time job, and you need some "early scoop/insider scoop" to win at that game. Yeah I'll leave that to the day traders.
So the Fidelity OTC fund (FOCPX)will be my next shift...I just have a feeling it'll be extra strong over the next couple of years.

Easto · Post by **Easto** » Wed May 05, 2021 9:50 am

I do have a percentage of my portfolio in a small cap fund and it has been doing well. I think one of the places we're going to see some growth is in small cap companies. With the work at home landscape seeming to take root, I think the smaller cap companies are the ones that will have employees actually back in the office and working on ways to grow their companies and this will really work to their advantage. There will always be Large Cap growth, but I think the stars are aligning for smaller companies to come into their own.

Post by **YeOldeStonecat** » Wed Aug 04, 2021 1:32 pm

AMD stock....WOW...in the past week.

I had been waiting for it to get back over 100 bucks...which it did, and I sold a chunk around 107 a few days ago from my "play fund" in TD Ameritrade. That morning it kept climbing...into the teens. Today shot up over 120.
Ah well, for my play fund I had bought it around 80. In my 401k a couple of years ago I bought a good bunch when it was in the low 40's. Happy about that one.

Post by **Philip** » Thu Aug 05, 2021 5:47 pm

Yeah, AMD had an amazing run in the past week or two. I haven't looked very closely, but their bottom line must be boosted by GPU sales because of the crypto-craze too. Intel otoh is lagging in price, I think they are somewhat undervalued at the moment and long term they will come around long term.

Post by **YeOldeStonecat** » Fri Aug 06, 2021 8:44 am

Intel struggling with manufacturing....AMD has assembly lines flying!
Intel is struggling with die size....Intel still living in the double digit days...
AMD is giving Intel multiple left and right hooks to the jaw over the past year! Their CEO is incredible....have you read up on her?
Their stock saw a good climb in the past week after another earnings report was released...better than projected.