Presidential Election

[Philip]

What do you guys think of this election?

I foresee results being recounted and contested in a few states as margins are razor thin: Wisconsin <20k difference, Michigan <10k, Nevada <8k, etc.
All this is way closer than all the polls predicted again. It is a bit surprising, as polling is supposed to be based on statistics and science, not bias.

Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised if results and recounts get challenged all the way to the Supreme Court again. There will be questions raised about the legitimacy of the voting process and the presidency again, whoever wins it seems.

[YARDofSTUF]

I'm surprised how many people are happy with trump and with how he is handling the pandemic. Looks like Biden will win a close one. Senate race is more interesting, along with how close Texas was.

That 2am speech was the **** show I was expecting. LOL

[Philip]

I didn't wait till 2AM for the speech, but it seems like it was the bomb. This will drag for weeks with the recounts and challenges, I am sure I will get plenty of chances to listen to his speeches, heh.

[jeremyboycool]

It is a bit surprising, as polling is supposed to be based on statistics and science, not bias.

It has much less to do with bias in the polls and more to do with the difficulty of trying to mathematize human behavior on such a large and diverse scale. I promise the people running for election don't want bias polls no matter what side they are on. People want accurate polls, but the actual act of predicting human behavior for something like an election is just not an easy task. Biden will likely win the popular vote, just like Clinton did in 2016. So many of the polls are not actually wrong, it is just our voting system does not always reflect what the majority wants.

[jeremyboycool]

I'm surprised how many people are happy with trump and with how he is handling the pandemic. Looks like Biden will win a close one. Senate race is more interesting, along with how close Texas was.

That 2am speech was the **** show I was expecting. LOL

The fact that so many people vote for Trump, has made me lose a lot of faith and respect for my fellow Americans.

[Easto]

The fact that so many people vote for Trump, has made me lose a lot of faith and respect for my fellow Americans.

My thoughts exactly. I mean, the whole general assembly of the United Nations laughed at him. The level of his stupidity... Bleach? I could go on and on but there are websites out there that have itemized and categorized his blunders and mistakes.

[Philip]

It has much less to do with bias in the polls and more to do with the difficulty of trying to mathematize human behavior on such a large and diverse scale. I promise the people running for election don't want bias polls no matter what side they are on. People want accurate polls, but the actual act of predicting human behavior for something like an election is just not an easy task. Biden will likely win the popular vote, just like Clinton did in 2016. So many of the polls are not actually wrong, it is just our voting system does not always reflect what the majority wants.

Just the mere fact that most polls were so off 4 years ago made me predict they would get it wrong this time, they didn't do much better and were skewed to the same side. I realize there are many variables to the equation and it is not easy, but we seem to be putting too much emphasis on polling, and it is not accurate.

[Philip]

My thoughts exactly. I mean, the whole general assembly of the United Nations laughed at him. The level of his stupidity... Bleach? I could go on and on but there are websites out there that have itemized and categorized his blunders and mistakes.

True. At the same time he has a lot of support, he is popular. In this election, Trump has more votes so far (67,233,126) than Obama during his second term re-election in 2012 (65,915,795). I am surprised he won Florida so easily, I was expecting a much closer race here too.

[jeremyboycool]

Just the mere fact that most polls were so off 4 years ago made me predict they would get it wrong this time, they didn't do much better and were skewed to the same side. I realize there are many variables to the equation and it is not easy, but we seem to be putting too much emphasis on polling, and it is not accurate.

I didn't see the emphasis put on the polls as you are suggesting. This year whenever a source I was viewing talked about polls they also mentioned that these polls may be misleading due to a number of factors.

Which, btw, is what statistics is supposed to do. It is a process of looking at the data to try and understand a system that is too complicated to directly observe, but it is a process of examining evidence, it was never meant to create facts or do our thinking for us. When you look at a statistical analysis you need to also consider the limitations, and I saw a lot more of that going on this year than in 2016.

Also, when you say the polls are "not accurate", there is accuracy in methods and accuracy in prediction, these are two separate things. You can follow all the right steps in your analysis and still have mispredictions, especially when it comes to something like elections. It could be that people who planned to vote for Biden were just more willing to express that than people who planned to vote for Trump. Or it could be that people who said they would vote one way, never actually went to vote.

[jeremyboycool]

True. At the same time he has a lot of support, he is popular. In this election, Trump has more votes so far (67,233,126) than Obama during his second term re-election in 2012 (65,915,795).

Could that have something to do with the record turnout in this election?

[Philip]

Absolutely.. Which doesn't contradict the statement that he is popular.

[jeremyboycool]

Absolutely.. Which doesn't contradict the statement that he is popular.

I never said it did. His popularity is the reason the Reps clung so tightly to someone so clearly unqualified to be president.

[YeOldeStonecat]

What do you guys think of this election?.

Blech
Will be getting cozy with china again....
Biden will have something happen to him, corrupt cameltoe with bring in sanders and aoc or others from kommifornia and we'll be in a world of hurt.

Ah well, Republicans will for the most part move on with their lives...going to work and trying to make money, instead of running around on unemployment and ransacking and burning cities.

But with hiden at the helm, unfortunately this overhyped plandemic will be become his focus. Ridiculous how politicized it got...thing just has to run its course, people need to move on and work and be productive. It's all around the world. What do liberals want..a gov't to lock the citizens in their homes, arrest them if found in the streets? Weld their front doors shut?

[jeremyboycool]

Trump still has a chance, but at this time it is looking like a Biden win. If Biden wins, it will be an interesting next few months and of course, there will be salty tears, but with Trump out of the office maybe we can start to heal this division between the Left and Right. That is of course if Biden wins, Trump has done nothing but worked to widen this gap between the Left and Right these past four years.

[Easto]

As of this morning Trump is tweeting "Stop the Count". I just don't understand the guy. I know how I would feel if it was my ballot and I was waiting for it to be counted. I consider that statement by him to be incredibly irresponsible to say the least.

[YARDofSTUF]

Blech
Will be getting cozy with china again....
Biden will have something happen to him, corrupt cameltoe with bring in sanders and aoc or others from kommifornia and we'll be in a world of hurt.

Ah well, Republicans will for the most part move on with their lives...going to work and trying to make money, instead of running around on unemployment and ransacking and burning cities.

But with hiden at the helm, unfortunately this overhyped plandemic will be become his focus. Ridiculous how politicized it got...thing just has to run its course, people need to move on and work and be productive. It's all around the world. What do liberals want..a gov't to lock the citizens in their homes, arrest them if found in the streets? Weld their front doors shut?

With a Biden win the dem party falls apart fully in 4 years and team red comes back in. As for the pandemic, its sad wearing a mask became political, but its also sad how many people put money above everything else. We don't need people locked in their homes, we need them to be smart, and thats much more difficult.

[jeremyboycool]

With a Biden win the dem party falls apart fully in 4 years and team red comes back in. As for the pandemic, its sad wearing a mask became political, but its also sad how many people put money above everything else. We don't need people locked in their homes, we need them to be smart, and thats much more difficult.

This is not really about "team red" vs. "team blue", I mean I am sure to some extent that is true, but really this is team anyone-else vs team Trump. Biden was not nominated for the Left, he was nominated for all the people that may not typically vote for Dems, but are now willing to do so just to vote Trump out.

[cybotron r_9]

My thoughts exactly. I mean, the whole general assembly of the United Nations laughed at him. The level of his stupidity... Bleach? I could go on and on but there are websites out there that have itemized and categorized his blunders and mistakes.

What about bleach?

[jeremyboycool]

What about bleach?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52407177

[cybotron r_9]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52407177

Thanks, so nothing there about bleach...got it

[jeremyboycool]

Thanks, so nothing there about bleach...got it

Doesn't really change how stupid his statements were.

[Easto]

Thanks, so nothing there about bleach...got it

I misquoted. Disinfectant. Regardless, his statements don't strike you as absurd? He once ask at a meeting of pharmaceutical executives...

“You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that would have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?” he said.

“No… probably none,” Mr Schleifer replied.

... after touting how intelligent he is he doesn't even understand how a vaccine works. I think every mom in the country understands how they work.

[Ken]

The only thing about the election that bothered me was the Democrats legally buying votes.

Down here in Hillsborough County alone, a Democratic group paid $1.5 million dollars in fines for felons so they could vote. Just 1 county... They certainly were not white collar felons...
Fines of convicted felons are a part of their restitution, their debt to society...

I could just imagine Republicans pulling a stunt like that! LMAO!

Perhaps soon, people will be able to send substitutes for their prison time...

[jeremyboycool]

The only thing about the election that bothered me was the Democrats legally buying votes.

Down here in Hillsborough County alone, a Democratic group paid $1.5 million dollars in fines for felons so they could vote. Just 1 county... They certainly were not white collar felons...
Fines of convicted felons are a part of their restitution, their debt to society...

I could just imagine Republicans pulling a stunt like that! LMAO!

Perhaps soon, people will be able to send substitutes for their prison time...

What bothers me the most about the election is all the nonsense people spread about it on the Internet, especially our current President. The Internet has become a giant trash bin, where people just dig up whatever piece of garbage that supports their views, instead of applying critical thinking skills.

[David]

I am not certain about the polls myself. One would have thought they would have a better understanding and improved metrics.
One might surmise that some shenanigans are afoot, but without actually proof I wouldn't purport as such.

Who would think that dishonesty exists in politics.

[David]

Ken,

Actually, I have to agree with you on that one. However, acting on bad faith is something that we have seen aplenty over the past number of years.

Question, have read the article on the shill candidates in Florida used to dilute congressional votes?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 21956.html

[jeremyboycool]

I am not certain about the polls myself. One would have thought they would have a better understanding and improved metrics.
One might surmise that some shenanigans are afoot, but without actually proof I wouldn't purport as such.

Who would think that dishonesty exists in politics.

This is why statistics should be taught in public schools. So that instead of alluding to possible "shenanigans" one could point them out. I don’t buy into these grand conspiracy theories involving the polls and generally consider them to be silly. However, when I have doubts about a poll, I look at its methodology and look for mistakes in their approach.

This is what people should be doing, but the sad truth is that Americans suffer from a lack of data literacy. I, personally, recommend people pick up an intro stats book, because we certainly live in the age of data and if you don’t know how to read a statistical analysis for yourself, you are left trusting someone else to tell you what it means.

[Ken]

Ken,

Actually, I have to agree with you on that one. However, acting on bad faith is something that we have seen aplenty over the past number of years.

Question, have read the article on the shill candidates in Florida used to dilute congressional votes?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 21956.html

Around election time, I don't tend to listen to news much so I can't say that I have heard of this, this time. Wouldn't surprise me as those tactics have been used in Presidential and other elections past. Splitting the vote, or diluting them, so to speak.

I do know of the big deal that was made over paying fines for felons. You couldn't get away from it. The group with their huge game show style check for $1.5 million and the felons on live TV saying how happy they were that they could vote. Couldn't get away from that, buying votes, plain and simple... And that was just Hillsborough County- Tampa. No doubt the same in many other locations...

I did hear of some arrests locally involving people voting using recently deceased relatives 'vote by mail' ballots. You should hear them studdering and stalling for excuses while the cameras were on them! One of the best, "That's who my mama would have voted for"!
IMHO they should pursue along those lines as voter fraud serves nothing good...

[David]

Jeremy,

Moreover, it is an understanding of scientific methodology. Knowing where the polls were drawn, sampling size, age, sex and ethnicity. It is assumed that they are responsible taken, however the results are being sold to specific new sources to play to their given audience.
At this point, I ignore these numbers.

[David]

Ken,


We heard about it here for about three days, but it became justifiable after the ramming of ACB into the Supreme court. The cemetery was matched by the multiple Trump ballot confessed by many on Left wing news sources. Fearless leader suggested it at one of his rallies, so I wouldn't be surprised.

I didn't me to jump in to be an angry ghost of christmas past. SG allowed for respectfully banter, which the echo chamber driven SM site do not.

be well,
david

[jeremyboycool]

Jeremy,

Moreover, it is an understanding of scientific methodology. Knowing where the polls were drawn, sampling size, age, sex and ethnicity. It is assumed that they are responsible taken, however the results are being sold to specific new sources to play to their given audience.
At this point, I ignore these numbers.

Sampling for a poll is part of the statistical process and it is certainly one of the major elements you should be looking at when assessing an analysis. Don't just assume it was all reasonably done, double-check it and if a statistical analysis you are looking at does not detail how sampling was done, stop reading that poll, as it is trash. A decent media source is not going to just list you a bunch of statistics without citing their source. So take it upon yourself to check up on the cited source, the actual analysis itself.

I think you are placing too much blame on the media. I know everyone loves to hate the media, but for the last few decades, the scientific community has dropped the ball and largely due to their casual approach to statistics. Don't trust them to do it correctly, double-check their work for yourself, and if you can't properly read an analysis, learn how. I mean just think about how fast some of these polls are turned out. The time frame is just not realistic for a larger scale statistical analysis. It is crap work, and when you do crap work you get crap results.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis

The bottom line is, that you need to take it upon yourself to be informed well enough to make sure the results you are looking at are reliable enough. Also, an informed public would help keep media sources honest.

[David]

Jeremy,

You think I do not understand cognitive dissonance?

Scientific methodologies require that all aspects of the procedure (such as an experiment) are to be listed. Otherwise, the results cannot be duplicated, therefore unverifiable. It is critical when statisticians are looking into predictability models.

[jeremyboycool]

Jeremy,

Scientific methodologies require that all aspects of the procedure (such as an experiment) are to be listed. Otherwise, the results cannot be duplicated, therefore unverifiable. It is critical when statisticians are looking into predictability models.

It is a bit more involved than that, David. Statistics is what is known as a formal science, meaning it cannot conclude with the same certainty the validity of its observations. Unlike the natural sciences, Statistics is the science of uncertainty, instead of certainty. So while the mathematical deductive steps for many statistical methods are sound and well established mathematically, it is still a process housed inside inductive reasoning. This means that in order for a considered statistical model to be reliable the researcher has to meet certain assumptions, and while there are diagnostic methods to examine if you meet those assumptions there is also a significant subjective component. So even if they properly detail every step, it may be that their results cannot be replicated because they overlooked some aspect of the considered population or miss assessed some assumptions.

[MadDoctor]

Flip a coin.....

[David]

Jeremy,

Putting aside further arguments of semantics

https://scse.d.umn.edu/about/department ... /what-math


At its essence, statistics is a listing of data. As it progresses, it relies on formulae to draw conclusions and make assessments.
For instance, when prescribing medication. Fluoroquinolones are a highly effective class of antibiotics. However, it is noted that cases of Achilles tendon rupture have occurred with patients receiving Levaquin and Cipro. The information is drawn and a rate of approximately 1% of the population receiving this drug have had incidence of tendon and ligament damage. This is of course not an absolute, however it places the usage of this class of drugs further down the list in choices when treating an infection.

Agreed that it does not prove cause, it can be used in decision making.

[jeremyboycool]

Jeremy,

Putting aside further arguments of semantics

https://scse.d.umn.edu/about/department ... /what-math


At its essence, statistics is a listing of data. As it progresses, it relies on formulae to draw conclusions and make assessments.
For instance, when prescribing medication. Fluoroquinolones are a highly effective class of antibiotics. However, it is noted that cases of Achilles tendon rupture have occurred with patients receiving Levaquin and Cipro. The information is drawn and a rate of approximately 1% of the population receiving this drug have had incidence of tendon and ligament damage. This is of course not an absolute, however it places the usage of this class of drugs further down the list in choices when treating an infection.

Agreed that it does not prove cause, it can be used in decision making.

David, I have a B.S. in mathematics with a focus on Statistics and I am nearly done with a M.S. in Statistics. I also teach introductory statistics here at the university; that is how I am putting myself through grad school. So not only I am a more informative source than your web link, but this also is not a simple matter of semantics to me, this is something that is important to me.

Statistics is an evidence-gathering process to help inform the decisions we make, but as I said in order for a statistical model to be interpretable and in order to draw reliable inferences from it you have to meet certain assumptions. Sometimes it is easier to verify those assumptions and sometimes it is not (which is very much related to the complexity of the model being considered), and sometimes a model is proven because it has become well established over time.

Getting back to polls in the media:

If a news outlet properly cites their source and you don't check the actual statistical analysis yourself, then you have no room to blame that news outlet for misleading you.
Also, if you do not know how to check some basic aspects of a statistical analysis, yourself, to make sure it was done properly, then you are not doing your duty as an informed US citizen.

[David]

Jeremy,

Why are you arguing with me?

[jeremyboycool]

Jeremy,

Why are you arguing with me?

I am not, David. I was trying to have a conversation, despite you trying to wave away everything I was saying as " arguments of semantics".

[David]

I am not, David. I was trying to have a conversation, despite you trying to wave away everything I was saying as " arguments of semantics".

No... you are arguing. You are trying to convince me that I am somehow incompetent of a skill I use everyday.

[Philip]

We sometimes come across differently than intended, especially when we feel strongly about a subject and put away niceties to get to its substance.